Official Canadian Election Thread 01/23
I'm sure some of you hate politics...so if you do, leave and don't sh*t on my thread!
Conservative Win in Canada Could Help Repair Ties to U.S.
TORONTO, Jan. 22 - Unless every national poll here is amiss, what has been perhaps the world's winningest political party is heading toward a humiliating defeat on Monday.
Stephen Harper, 46, an economist and social conservative who is writing a history of ice hockey, appears poised to lead his Conservative Party to victory over the Liberal Party of Prime Minister Paul Martin, something that seemed highly improbable just a few weeks ago. The Liberals won the last four national elections, governing Canada for 13 years - as the party did for three-quarters of the past century.
But whether a Harper victory would represent a seismic shift, in a country that has long promoted itself as a beacon of social democracy and frequent critic of American foreign policy, remains an open question. If he cannot muster a majority in the House of Commons, Mr. Harper may lead a weak, unstable government opposed by three left-of-center parties represented in Parliament.
Mr. Harper - in a campaign largely free of ideology - promised to cut the national sales tax, grant families child care for preschoolers and introduce mandatory prison sentences. A longtime member of the House of Commons representing Alberta, he has a conservative record, but steered clear in recent months of promising major changes to the national health insurance program.
The absence of strong ideological overtones would appear to make a Thatcherite-style revolution unlikely, even in the face of a strong Conservative showing. Mr. Harper even noted that judges appointed by Liberal governments and an appointed Senate filled with Liberals would serve as checks on his power.
"I'm basically a cautious person," Mr. Harper said in a recent speech. "I believe it's better to light one candle than to promise a million light bulbs."
A change in Ottawa would almost certainly bring, at the least, a warming of relations with Washington, which have been strained since the American-led invasion of Iraq and have worsened over a series of recent trade disputes and Canadian moves to soften domestic drug laws.
Mr. Harper, while careful not to appear overly supportive of President Bush, has suggested he would reconsider Canada's refusal to join the American missile defense program. He has also promised to increase military spending and make a bigger contribution to NATO and peacekeeping operations in places like Haiti and Afghanistan. But he also said recently that he had no intention of sending troops to Iraq.
Mr. Martin, a former finance minister and shipping executive, has tried to emphasize the Liberal government's stewardship of the strong national economy, marked by low inflation and unemployment, a strengthening currency and a large budget surplus. He has promised to create a national child care program, expand aid grants to college students and ban handguns.
These are not unpopular stances, but the decline of Liberal fortunes is due less to any shift in Canadian public opinion than to two years of federal inquiries. Those investigations documented an embarrassing party money-laundering and campaign-finance scheme that had been devised to counter separatists after the close referendum on Quebec sovereignty in 1995.
Adding to the Liberal Party troubles, in the middle of the campaign, federal police investigators announced that they were looking into reports of possible Liberal government leaks of tax information to friendly investors that had spurred a flurry of insider trading.
And in Quebec, once a bastion of Liberal support, the party's free fall quickened with the publication of a book documenting allegations that the federal government had laundered millions of dollars of illegal aid to a group opposing separatists during the referendum campaign.
In recent weeks, the Liberals tried to recover votes with advertisements linking Mr. Harper to Mr. Bush, who is unpopular in Canada, and suggestions in speeches that Mr. Harper would attempt to reverse the legalization of same-sex marriage and abortion rights.
"A Harper victory will put a smile on George W. Bush's face," one Martin commercial said.
Various national polls in the final days of the campaign showed the Conservatives about 10 points ahead of the Liberals, but the Conservatives could still fail to win a majority in the House of Commons.
Mr. Harper leads a party that only three years ago merged a very conservative Canadian Alliance party with the much more moderate Progressive Conservative party.
"There are different factions and backgrounds and points of view in the Conservative coalition," noted Desmond Morton, a McGill University historian. It will not be easy to manage the factions, he said.
Mr. Harper's greatest success so far has been his surprising breakthrough in socially liberal Quebec, by taking votes away from both the Liberals and the separatist Bloc Québécois.
Heading into tomorrow:
And finally some projections:
Seat Projection:
CON: 126
LIB: 93
BQ: 59
NDP: 29
Who would you like to see win and why? Discuss at will.
PLEASE VOTE!
Originally posted by NY Times
Stephen Harper, 46, an economist and social conservative who is writing a history of ice hockey, appears poised to lead his Conservative Party to victory over the Liberal Party of Prime Minister Paul Martin, something that seemed highly improbable just a few weeks ago. The Liberals won the last four national elections, governing Canada for 13 years - as the party did for three-quarters of the past century.
But whether a Harper victory would represent a seismic shift, in a country that has long promoted itself as a beacon of social democracy and frequent critic of American foreign policy, remains an open question. If he cannot muster a majority in the House of Commons, Mr. Harper may lead a weak, unstable government opposed by three left-of-center parties represented in Parliament.
Mr. Harper - in a campaign largely free of ideology - promised to cut the national sales tax, grant families child care for preschoolers and introduce mandatory prison sentences. A longtime member of the House of Commons representing Alberta, he has a conservative record, but steered clear in recent months of promising major changes to the national health insurance program.
The absence of strong ideological overtones would appear to make a Thatcherite-style revolution unlikely, even in the face of a strong Conservative showing. Mr. Harper even noted that judges appointed by Liberal governments and an appointed Senate filled with Liberals would serve as checks on his power.
"I'm basically a cautious person," Mr. Harper said in a recent speech. "I believe it's better to light one candle than to promise a million light bulbs."
A change in Ottawa would almost certainly bring, at the least, a warming of relations with Washington, which have been strained since the American-led invasion of Iraq and have worsened over a series of recent trade disputes and Canadian moves to soften domestic drug laws.
Mr. Harper, while careful not to appear overly supportive of President Bush, has suggested he would reconsider Canada's refusal to join the American missile defense program. He has also promised to increase military spending and make a bigger contribution to NATO and peacekeeping operations in places like Haiti and Afghanistan. But he also said recently that he had no intention of sending troops to Iraq.
Mr. Martin, a former finance minister and shipping executive, has tried to emphasize the Liberal government's stewardship of the strong national economy, marked by low inflation and unemployment, a strengthening currency and a large budget surplus. He has promised to create a national child care program, expand aid grants to college students and ban handguns.
These are not unpopular stances, but the decline of Liberal fortunes is due less to any shift in Canadian public opinion than to two years of federal inquiries. Those investigations documented an embarrassing party money-laundering and campaign-finance scheme that had been devised to counter separatists after the close referendum on Quebec sovereignty in 1995.
Adding to the Liberal Party troubles, in the middle of the campaign, federal police investigators announced that they were looking into reports of possible Liberal government leaks of tax information to friendly investors that had spurred a flurry of insider trading.
And in Quebec, once a bastion of Liberal support, the party's free fall quickened with the publication of a book documenting allegations that the federal government had laundered millions of dollars of illegal aid to a group opposing separatists during the referendum campaign.
In recent weeks, the Liberals tried to recover votes with advertisements linking Mr. Harper to Mr. Bush, who is unpopular in Canada, and suggestions in speeches that Mr. Harper would attempt to reverse the legalization of same-sex marriage and abortion rights.
"A Harper victory will put a smile on George W. Bush's face," one Martin commercial said.
Various national polls in the final days of the campaign showed the Conservatives about 10 points ahead of the Liberals, but the Conservatives could still fail to win a majority in the House of Commons.
Mr. Harper leads a party that only three years ago merged a very conservative Canadian Alliance party with the much more moderate Progressive Conservative party.
"There are different factions and backgrounds and points of view in the Conservative coalition," noted Desmond Morton, a McGill University historian. It will not be easy to manage the factions, he said.
Mr. Harper's greatest success so far has been his surprising breakthrough in socially liberal Quebec, by taking votes away from both the Liberals and the separatist Bloc Québécois.
Originally posted by Globe & Mail
How would you vote if an election were held today?
Cons. 37%
Liberal 29%
NDP 15%
Bloc 13%
Green 6%
Cons. 37%
Liberal 29%
NDP 15%
Bloc 13%
Green 6%
Originally posted by Canada Federal Election Website
Seat Projection:
CON: 126
LIB: 93
BQ: 59
NDP: 29
PLEASE VOTE!
, and the Conservatives will gain a slim minority.
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