Super Bowl 2008
Patriots vs. Giants - Sunday Feb. 3
Here's my break-down of the game:
Pats O vs. Giants D
The Giants have a very good d-line, but the Pats pass blocking O-line is much better. The Giants will have to blitz to put pressure on Brady, one of their main goals will be to hit Brady. I anticipate them taking a Roughing the Passer penalty at some point in the same, probably 2nd half. When the Giants blitz their LBs, they have success getting to Brady, but Welker will get the quick passes. When blitzing DBs, they will likely have limited success at the Pats TEs and RBs are good at recognizing this and picking it up. If they don't blitz, the Pats o-line should keep them in check, and that it when the Pats WRs should be able to take advantage of an aggressive defense and beat them over the top. I predict two long passes to either Moss or Stallworth. The Giants will try to shake Brady by getting hits on them, but Brady doesn;t get rattled easily, and I expect the that although the Pats will pass a lot, that the Giants d-line will get tired down the stretch of the game, and will get frustrated.
When running the ball, the Giants have an advantage between the tackles. If the Pats have success on the ground, it'll be from tosses or stretches. The Pats WRs are very good blockers, and I expect Maroney to spring one for 35+ yards if he gets to the second level. The X-Factor is Maroney, he is a good runner when he hits the line at full speed, but he has a tendency to shuffle his feet when he gets the ball and get tackled in the backfield. If this happens, I won't be surprised to see Evans get some carries in an attempt to establish a run game. Faulk is also someone to watch for, when he's in the game, the Pats are passing, and he's a good blocker but is also clutch on 3rd down in taking a short pass and getting a first down.
Ultimately, I expect over 45 passes from Brady, and for him to have his way with the Giants D. Welker with over 8 catches, all of them short except for one 20+ yarder. I expect Moss to have a big game, and for Stallworth to get involved in place of Gaffney. I think that the Pats O will have a big 2nd half as the Giants lose composure.
Giants O vs. Pats D
The Pats LBs are good in the middle, and when they blitz. If the Giants run game is to have success, then they'll have to run to the outside. Jacobs is successful running to the outside, while I expect Bradshaw to get stuffed in the middle when he runs. Seau is hungry for a championship, and I expect him to have a big game. Screen passes probably won't work. Wilfork is the best DT in the game at playing and recognizing the screen. I think the Pats try to apply pressure early, and will have some success, but the Giants o-line will be able to hold their outside rushers such as Vrabel. Manning rushes throws and make bad decisions when he is pressured from the bad-side, but he can beat you when you blitz from the defensive-left side. Therefore, I think Belicheck will try to send Thomas at Eli, and could have some success since Seymour plays on that side as well.
Eli makes some bad decisions and has been bailed out by his receivers, and has a tendency to throw to short hook routes when under pressure. This plays into Samuels hands, as he likes to jump routes. I think Samuels gets at least one INT. However, I also expect Samuels to be beat over top while in zone coverage. In man coverage, Samuels on Toomer is a good match-up, and probably best to have Hobbs on Plaxico with Meriweather over top. I don't expect Kevin Boss to have much of an impact. I do expect the Giants to get a deep pass TD. Just like on the other side of the ball, I expect the Giants to lose composure late in the game, and for Eli to make mistakes when that happens.
One reason why the Giants kept the Week 17 so close was because of red-zone effeciency. They will need to continue this if they have chance of winning. I think Jacobs would the man to help them do this, Eli likes to look for him when down in that area, and therefore I think Bruschi will cover him, which is a good match-up for the Pats.
Special Teams
Hixon did very well in giving the Giants good field position in their first game, and that was a major reason why they did so well. I can't see the Pats letting them do that twice....and Hobbs could be a non-factor in the Pats return game, but he has the potential to break one for a TD...unlikely in my mind though.
Play-calling
The Giants will keep it simple. They will try to be efficient and slowly move the ball downfield, and hope that they can catch a breakdown in coverage to make a big play. They have gotten to where they are at because of being patient and waiting for other to make mistakes, and taking advantage of it when they do.
The Pats will try to set up big plays from the beginning. If it's not there, Brady will be patient and give it to Welker and Faulk all day, but I expect a trick play or two and for them to be able to throw it over top to Moss or Stallworth on a play that they have run a few times, but usually throw it to Welker underneath.
Penalties
Rodney Harrison might get a few while agitating the Giants, but I think this will be a clean game until the 4th quarter when the Giants lose their composure.
Overall Prediction
Patriots-38
Giants-21
-close at halftime, Pats win it in the 2nd half.
Here's my break-down of the game:
Pats O vs. Giants D
The Giants have a very good d-line, but the Pats pass blocking O-line is much better. The Giants will have to blitz to put pressure on Brady, one of their main goals will be to hit Brady. I anticipate them taking a Roughing the Passer penalty at some point in the same, probably 2nd half. When the Giants blitz their LBs, they have success getting to Brady, but Welker will get the quick passes. When blitzing DBs, they will likely have limited success at the Pats TEs and RBs are good at recognizing this and picking it up. If they don't blitz, the Pats o-line should keep them in check, and that it when the Pats WRs should be able to take advantage of an aggressive defense and beat them over the top. I predict two long passes to either Moss or Stallworth. The Giants will try to shake Brady by getting hits on them, but Brady doesn;t get rattled easily, and I expect the that although the Pats will pass a lot, that the Giants d-line will get tired down the stretch of the game, and will get frustrated.
When running the ball, the Giants have an advantage between the tackles. If the Pats have success on the ground, it'll be from tosses or stretches. The Pats WRs are very good blockers, and I expect Maroney to spring one for 35+ yards if he gets to the second level. The X-Factor is Maroney, he is a good runner when he hits the line at full speed, but he has a tendency to shuffle his feet when he gets the ball and get tackled in the backfield. If this happens, I won't be surprised to see Evans get some carries in an attempt to establish a run game. Faulk is also someone to watch for, when he's in the game, the Pats are passing, and he's a good blocker but is also clutch on 3rd down in taking a short pass and getting a first down.
Ultimately, I expect over 45 passes from Brady, and for him to have his way with the Giants D. Welker with over 8 catches, all of them short except for one 20+ yarder. I expect Moss to have a big game, and for Stallworth to get involved in place of Gaffney. I think that the Pats O will have a big 2nd half as the Giants lose composure.
Giants O vs. Pats D
The Pats LBs are good in the middle, and when they blitz. If the Giants run game is to have success, then they'll have to run to the outside. Jacobs is successful running to the outside, while I expect Bradshaw to get stuffed in the middle when he runs. Seau is hungry for a championship, and I expect him to have a big game. Screen passes probably won't work. Wilfork is the best DT in the game at playing and recognizing the screen. I think the Pats try to apply pressure early, and will have some success, but the Giants o-line will be able to hold their outside rushers such as Vrabel. Manning rushes throws and make bad decisions when he is pressured from the bad-side, but he can beat you when you blitz from the defensive-left side. Therefore, I think Belicheck will try to send Thomas at Eli, and could have some success since Seymour plays on that side as well.
Eli makes some bad decisions and has been bailed out by his receivers, and has a tendency to throw to short hook routes when under pressure. This plays into Samuels hands, as he likes to jump routes. I think Samuels gets at least one INT. However, I also expect Samuels to be beat over top while in zone coverage. In man coverage, Samuels on Toomer is a good match-up, and probably best to have Hobbs on Plaxico with Meriweather over top. I don't expect Kevin Boss to have much of an impact. I do expect the Giants to get a deep pass TD. Just like on the other side of the ball, I expect the Giants to lose composure late in the game, and for Eli to make mistakes when that happens.
One reason why the Giants kept the Week 17 so close was because of red-zone effeciency. They will need to continue this if they have chance of winning. I think Jacobs would the man to help them do this, Eli likes to look for him when down in that area, and therefore I think Bruschi will cover him, which is a good match-up for the Pats.
Special Teams
Hixon did very well in giving the Giants good field position in their first game, and that was a major reason why they did so well. I can't see the Pats letting them do that twice....and Hobbs could be a non-factor in the Pats return game, but he has the potential to break one for a TD...unlikely in my mind though.
Play-calling
The Giants will keep it simple. They will try to be efficient and slowly move the ball downfield, and hope that they can catch a breakdown in coverage to make a big play. They have gotten to where they are at because of being patient and waiting for other to make mistakes, and taking advantage of it when they do.
The Pats will try to set up big plays from the beginning. If it's not there, Brady will be patient and give it to Welker and Faulk all day, but I expect a trick play or two and for them to be able to throw it over top to Moss or Stallworth on a play that they have run a few times, but usually throw it to Welker underneath.
Penalties
Rodney Harrison might get a few while agitating the Giants, but I think this will be a clean game until the 4th quarter when the Giants lose their composure.
Overall Prediction
Patriots-38
Giants-21
-close at halftime, Pats win it in the 2nd half.
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