2018 Winter Olympics

[Inquiring Mind]

Re: 2018 Winter Olympics

With the Games just over a month away and the World Cups in their breaks, here is my little preliminary breakdown of who to keep an eye on for those who don't normally pay attention to a lot of these sports.

Lets start with the nordic sports.

CROSS COUNTRY SKIING

Canada's Chances: Alex Harvey is our great hope here. He's a consistent top 5-10 finisher, and occasionally cracks the podium. He's an all-around skier, so he has a chance in almost any of the men's races. The sprint relay, also with Harvey, is also a possibility. There have been high hopes the last decade the mens team could finally break the goose egg at the Olympics as we had our best teams ever, but their success was limited to World Cups, and a lot of those skiers have kinda aged out, other than Harvey who was the young phenom and is now 29. No medal threats on the womens side. At the end of the day, they'd be happy with one medal.

Favourites: Norway is rather dominant. Klæbo on the mens side has been having an amazing season. Some other names on the mens side are Maurice Manificat from France, Dario Cologna from Switzerland and the Russians tend to be strong (and chemically enhanced). On the women side, Norway has four outstanding skiers, Bjorgen, Ostberg, Went and Falla. The Swedes have the best chance to crack the podium with Kalla and Nilsson. The American’s are also starting to make waves, so they’ll be interesting to watch.

BIATHLON

Canada’s Chances: In a word, slim. If the stars align, might be able to challenge in a relay, but I don’t see us winning any medals. Nathan Smith had been on great form and was nearing regular contender status with some World Cup podiums, but had some health issues and missed most of last season, and is still trying to find his form again. Last year was rather dismal on the whole for the World Cup team. This year they’re doing better, and Julia Ransom and Emma Lunder are very promising, but ultimately top 20’s would be good, and top 10’s outstanding results in the individual races.

Favourites: Martin Fourcade (France) has been the dominant force on the mens side the last several years, putting up incredible results. But this year Johannes Thingnes Bo (Norway) has really came in and punched him in the mouth, winning five of eight races. France, Norway and Germany are the elite nations, and then Russia, Czech Rep and Italians are contenders on the mens side. On the women’s side, the German’s and French are the elite nations, with Ukraine, Norway, Finland, Italy and Czech’s the contenders. Dahlmaier (Germany) has been the dominant force in recent years. Kuzmina (Slovenia) has been very strong so far this year, and is typically very strong in the sprint/pursuit races. Herrmann from Germany is having a breakthrough year.

NORDIC COMBINED

Canada’s Chances: None. I don’t think we’re sending anyone

Favourites: Germany has been the dominant force in recent years, particularly Rydzek and Frenzel. Norway, Japan and Austria are also medal contenders. The US was strong here for a time, but peaked in Vancouver and have fallen off the face of the earth since.

SKI JUMPING

Canada’s Chances: None. We have at least qualified a man and a woman here though.

Favourites: German’s are very strong on the mens side, especially Freitag. Also keep your eye on Stock (Poland), Kraft (Austria), Prevc (Slovenia) and the Norwegians. For the women, Japan has two great jumpers in Takanashi and Ito, and other contenders include Lundby (Norway) and Althaus (Germany).

[Inquiring Mind]

Re: 2018 Winter Olympics

ALPINE

Canada's Chances: Doubtful. Erik Guay has been the only one to get a podium result the last couple years, and he's got back problems that might make him miss entirely.

Favourites: The Alpine events are always a bit of a crap shoot from day to day and event to event. The traditional powers will likely rule the podium, Austria, Switzerland, Norway, Italy, Germany. Hirscher (Austria) is probably the top mens skier at the moment, and Shiffrin (US) on the womens.

BOBSLED

Canada's Chances: Surprisingly strong. On the women's side, Humphries continues to be a favourite, that's not a surprise (our other two women's sleds will likely finish top 10, but out of the medals). What is a surprise is the sudden emergence of the men's teams. Last year the only three podiums they got were in Lake Placid, which is a widely skipped track on the WC... this year they've already won 8, done it on every track and we're only half way through the season, and even our 3rd sled is challenging. The 2-man in particular is strong, with Kripps and Spring 1-2 in the WC standings, and Kripps never finishing lower than 4th. In the 4 man, Kripps is sitting 3rd, and Spring 7th. At this point, it looks good for 2 or 3 medals total if the first half of the season is any indication.

Favourites: On the womens side, the US has two very strong sleds, and the German's have two that could challenge as well. The medals will be some combination of those and Humphries. The mens side is was figuring to be more wide open, but the Russians and Swiss have really fallen off and with the tragic death of Steve Holcomb, the US program was faced with a big hole to fill. Germany could win a bunch, particularly in 4-man. Latvia is also strong. But outside Germany, the expected teams have really struggled this year, and Canada has taken full advantage of that. Will be interesting to see how things play out in the second half and at the Olympics.

SKELETON

Canada's Chances: Could get skunked, could win multiple. The women's team is doing very well, with all three sliders making the podium, Vathje, Rahneva and Channell. Vathje has 3, including in both races in Europe, so she's doing great. On the mens side, Greszczyszyn is a dark horse, but also has a podium result this year. It's a pleasant resurgence given the major funding cuts this team suffered in recent years.

Favourites: On the mens side, Sung-bin and Martin Dukurs are prohibitive favourites. I'll be cheering for Dukurs, he's been the dominant slider for a decade, but has missed Olympic golds when a hot home-country slider beat him out, and is faced with the same fate this time (though he probably will end up with the 2014 gold, as the gold medalist has been stripped recently). Though, this time Sung-bin probably is the best slider on the planet at this point, and pair that with home track. On the womens side there are any of 6-8 who could podium, from Germany Lolling and Hermann, Yarnold from Great Britain, and Flock from Austria are favourites with the Canadians.

LUGE

Canada's Chances: We've got two strong women with Gough and McRae, who might be able to crack the German stronghold and sneak onto the podium, but that will be tough. Edney in the mens and Walker/Snith in the doubles aren't really medal threats, but could be top 10 easily. Probably our best hope is in the relay, as we're decent across the board and Germany only gets to enter one team. On a side note, long after the fact it seems we'll be upgraded to bronze for our luge relay in 2014 after the Russians got nailed for doping there too.

Favourites: The German's dominate, particularly the womens and doubles. The Americans and Canadians are the only ones the might be able to break up a medal sweep in the womens, and the Austrians on the doubles. In the mens Kindl from Austria and maybe the Russians will also contend... but I wouldn't be surprised if the German's take 7 of the 9 individual medals, and will crush everyone in the relay.

[Section N]

Re: 2018 Winter Olympics

I’m always amazed at the depth of your knowledge about Canadians and their sports. Thanks IM!

[Inquiring Mind]

Re: 2018 Winter Olympics

LONG TRACK SPEED SKATING

Canada's Chances: For the first time in a long time, it's the mens team that's where our strength lies. If I had to put money on anyone winning multiple medals, it would be Ted-Jan Bloemen in the mens distance events. He's about the only one in the world that's even close to Sven Kramer. May not win any gold, but he's almost a lock for medals in the 5000 and 10000... and will have a chance in the team pursuit as well. The shorter events are more wide open, and we've got a few possibilities with De Haître, Boisvert-Lacroix, and Dubreuil, as well as Morrison. For the women, Ivanie Blondin has the best chance. She was a mass start specialist, but has became formidable in the 3000 and 5000 as well. She's our best bet in those, as well as the team pursuit. Hudey and McLean are also an outside threat in the sprint distances, with good showings of late. The women are in a rebuild phase, after the glory days kinda ended with a thud in 2013. The men are finally coming into their own after a lot of years in the wilderness... granted, a big part of that is our transplanted Dutchman, Bloeman.

Favourites: I'll refrain from getting into all the names or all the specialists. But the Dutch are a powerhouse in pretty much every distance. The Japanese women are looking extremely good this season. Norway is also coming on, especially the men. Russia has some strength in the middle distances. Korea is also starting to emerge, especially in the mass start, where a lot of converted short trackers are making the move. Speaking of the mass start, it's new this Olympics, and it's a strange event, with little mini races and points awarded throughout... to save confusion when you watch it for the first time, for the medals nothing matters but how the skaters finish the race.

SHORT TRACK SPEED SKATING

Short track is actually getting a lot more interesting with more countries. Historically it was largely Korea, Canada, China and maybe the US with just scraps for the rest. But the Dutch are coming on in a big way, Japan is reemerging, Italy and Hungary have developed some star skaters too.

Canada's Chances: Short track is madness, thus hard to predict... but I think Kim Boutin might be a household name by time those two weeks are over. She's the most explosive women's skater I think we've ever produced. She's only 23 and this is her first Olympics, but I think she has more potential than I've seen from our anyone womens program in 20 years. She's my pick for the woman most likely to win multiple medals. St Gelais remains strong in the 500, and the womens relay team should challenge. On the mens side, Charles Hamelin in back for one more go, but he's got a challenge from a very promising 21 year old named Samuel Girard, who is also a phenomenal talent. 2022 maybe more his coming out party on the big stage, but he could very well win some medals this go around. In anycase, the future looks very promising, which was something that made people nervous in 2014. Short track is crazy, so we could end up with anywhere from 2-6 medals depending how things play out.

Favourites: Sjinkie Knegt from the Netherlands may be public enemy #1 in Korea by time this is done, he picked up where Apolo Anton Ohno left off when it comes to pissing them off. Very exciting skater, and enjoys the rough stuff, so lots of bumping in his races. The Liu brothers from Hungary are also exciting upstarts who are fun to watch. Fontana from Italy is a force on the womens side. In general, China is a threat in all distances. Japan is starting to come on strong as well. Korea will have all guns blazing at home, and the crowds will be rowdy, as this sport is MASSIVE there.

FIGURE SKATING

Canada's Chances: We seem to have a medal threat in each discipline, which basically makes a medal in the team event a sure thing. Virtue and Moir will win something in the ice dance, and Weaver/Poje will also probably be top 5. Duhamel/Radford and Ilyushechkina/Moscovitch finshed 7th and 6th at last years Worlds in pairs. Our traditional weak spot with the women, may be our biggest strength this year with Osmond and Daleman both medaling in womens last year, and Patrick Chan keeps hanging around in the mens.

Favourites: Won't say much here, as it's a well covered sport and others surely know this better than I. My one comment is about the team event, which seems to have been added for the sole purpose of guaranteeing Canada, USA and Russia each an extra medal.

CURLING/HOCKEY

Canada should win at least four medals in these five events.

Women's hockey, as always, is Canada/US and everyone else fighting for bronze. With the NHL out of the mens, it'll be everyone elses B or C team against our N team. For curling, anything less than gold for the mens and womens teams would be disappointing, and no medal would be a disaster. Still not entirely sure what to make of mixed doubles, but I am actually starting to enjoy it, the rules being such a massive departure from the regular sport, it's keeps a great pace and tons of rocks in play.

- - - Updated - - -

I’m always amazed at the depth of your knowledge about Canadians and their sports. Thanks IM!

Well, honestly I could only really discuss biathlon, speed skating and the sliding sports intelligently. The rest I only really follow passively, and form "opinions" largely based on the checking World Cup results online. Also helps that I don't follow the NHL, NFL or NBA, it gives me something to watch!

[Inquiring Mind]

Re: 2018 Winter Olympics

Disclaimer: Freestyle skiing and snowboarding is a bit harder to handicap, as some disciplines have multiple tours and events. For anything in the X-Games, those fields are typically good indicators.

MOGULS

Canada's Chances: I don't see a repeat of the 4 medal performance in Sochi, but probably 2 or 3. Kingsbury on the mens side is a sure thing, and Phil Marquis has an outside shot. Justine Dufour-Lapointe is our most consistent skier, and Andi Naude and Chloe Dufour-Lapointe are a bit more sporadic, but have a good chance.

Favourites: Australia's Britteny Cox is the women's favourite, and Perrine Laffont from France is very close to JDL. For the men, Kingsbury has been dominant, there are a couple French and couple Aussies that often fill out the podium.

SKI-CROSS

Canada's Chances: Might be able to sneak one or two medals out. Marielle Thompson has been dominant on the women's side, but suffered a bad injury in the fall and while trying to make it back, probably won't be on form if she does. Serwa and Simmerling are occasional on the podium finishers, so are probably our best chance. Brady Leman is our most consistent skier, and Chris Del Bosco still has the odd moment of greatness.

Favourites: For the men, the French and Swiss are loaded, and Flip Flisar from Slovenia is a perennial threat. For the women, Sandra Näslund from Sweden, Heidi Zacher from Germany, Fanny Smith from Switzerland, and Marielle Berger-Sabbatel from France are the favs.

AERIALS

Canada's Chances: Slim to none

Favourites: Men, China is loaded with Wang Xindi, Qi Guangpu and Zhou Hang. Anton Kushnir from Belarus will probably medal. For the women, it's China vs Australia, as they both have three each that can medal on any given day.

SKI SLOPESTYLE

Canada's Chances: Alex Beaulieu-Marchand and Kaya Turski are among the best in the world, and defending gold medalist Dara Howell is making a comeback after kinda falling off

SKI HALFPIPE

Canada's Chances: Noah Bowman and Simon d'Artois have a chance for the men, and Cassie Sharpe for the ladies.

SNOWBOARD-BIG AIR AND SLOPESTYLE

Canada's Chances: There is an embarrassment of riches on the men's side with Max Parrot, Seb Toutant, Tyler Nicholson, and Mark McMorris (apparently healed up from his major accident last year). Big Air is new this year. Slopestyle debuted last time, and had some rather ridiculous judging, so who knows how that will work out this time around. If there was ever a chance for Canada to sweep a podium, this would be it.

SNOWBOARD CROSS

Canada's Chances: Not real good. Baptiste Brochu and Meryeta Odine do have World Cup podiums though, so you never know. It's an unpredictable sport.

As an aside, the seemingly eternally snakebite at the Olympics, Lindsey Jacobellis is back for the US. She's been the dominant boarder on the circuit for most of the last 15 years, but something always seems to go drastically wrong for her at the Olympics. Most infamously in 2006, costing herself the gold, then with wipeouts in the semifinals during 2010 and 2014

SNOWBOARD HALFPIPE AND PARALLEL GIANT SLALOM

Canada's Chances: I'm not even sure we're sending any athletes for these

[Inquiring Mind]

Re: 2018 Winter Olympics

Currently, my Olympic medal guesstimate has Canada finishing 4th with 28. Behind Germany 33, Norway 32 and the US at 29.

I'll update them again before the break. The added wrinkle this year is Russia, and not knowing who will or won't be able to compete. Where an athlete has been banned, I've removed them, but even those can be reinstated. Other than the speed skating, the Russians seem to be struggling this year on many world cups... but as they found out in Sochi, a well timed PED cycle can do wonders, as they had guys coming out of nowhere in cross country. So who knows, who will be there and how doped up they'll be is anyones guess.

If you're looking to watch some of the World Cup's to get familiar with the sports over the next month, CBC.ca streams a lot of them (speed skating, short track, figure skating, luge, bobsled, and skeleton fairly reliably and on-demand).

http://www.cbc.ca/player/sports/Full%20Shows

A lot of the skiing is hard to find, but can often be found on Youtube via unofficial channels.

https://www.youtube.com/user/ClassicSkiTrack

My favourite winter sport to watch is biathlon, I watch all the world cups. My advice would be to start by watching mass starts or pursuit races, they're easy to follow and first-across-the-line races that are done in 35-40 minutes entirely. Avoid sprint and individual races, as they are interval based and just impossible to follow and take forever. Relays are also good, but take longer to complete.

https://www.eurovisionsports.tv/ibu/

[stamphater]

Re: 2018 Winter Olympics

Thank you for this IM! Looking forward to being able to sit down and watch the winter olympics for once...

[Inquiring Mind]

Re: 2018 Winter Olympics

Historic result of Alex Harvey in the Tour de Ski, becoming the first non-European male to podium

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/olympics/cr...sult-1.4476760

[Section N]

Re: 2018 Winter Olympics

Team USA doing what it can to promote curling...

Pro football + Cheetos + curling = this music video. #DoTheCurl and post it for USA Curling! pic.twitter.com/WoJIQ6NEzZ

— Chester Cheetah (@ChesterCheetah) January 10, 2018

[Inquiring Mind]

Re: 2018 Winter Olympics

Canada has named their long-track speedskating team, or at least most of it. We only named 9 women, but can send 10, and haven't allotted all the spots in the 500, 1000, and 1500, so I'm guessing they're still trying to figure out who else they'll name and which of those spots will be filled by existing skaters.

It's really quite an impressive bunch, our strongest team ever in my opinion (granted its doubtful we'll match the 8 medals won in 2006, but it's hard to replicate Cindy Klassen winning 5). Bart Schouten was hired after the 2010 Olympics to rebuild that program, and it's really starting to pay dividends where we've not got contending skaters in all disciplines. So, speed skating should be a good watch for Canadians, other than that most of the events are at 4am our time, but that's why we have PVR's.

Men: Gilmore Junio (500), Alex Boisvert-Lacroix (500), Laurent Dubreuil (500, 1,000), Alexandre St-Jean (1,000), Vincent De Haitre (1,000, 1,500), Ben Donnelly (1,500, Team Pursuit), Denny Morrison (1,500, Team Pursuit), Ted-Jan Bloeman (5,000, 10,000, Team Pursuit), Jordan Belchos (10,000, Team Pursuit), and Olivier Jean (Mass start)

Women: Marsha Hudey (500), Heather McLean (500, 1,000), Kaylin Irvine (1,000), Kali Christ (1,500), Brianne Tutt (1,500, 3,000), Isabelle Weidemann (3,000, 5,000, Team Pursuit), Ivanie Blondin (3,000, 5,000, Team Pursuit, Mass Start), Josie Morrison (Team Pursuit), and Keri Morrison (Team Pursuit, Mass Start)

Breaking it down by event (number of athletes we can enter in brackets)

Mens:
500m (3) - Junio, Boisvert-Lacroix, Dubreuil
1,000m (3) - De Haitre, St-Jean, Dubreuil
1,500m (3) - De Haitre, Morrison, Donnelly
5,000m (1) - Bloeman
10,000m (2) - Bloeman, Belchos
Mass Start (1) - Jean
Team Pursuit (1) - Bloeman, Donnelly, Morrison, Belchos

Women:
500m (3) - Hudey, McLean, TBD
1,000m (3) - McLean, Irvine, TBD
1,500m (3) - Tutt, Christ, TBD
3,000m (3) - Blondin, Weidemann, Tutt
5,000m (2) - Blondin, Weidemann
Mass Start (2) - Blondin, K Morrison
Team Pursuit (1) - Blondin, Weidemann, J Morrison, K Morrison

[Inquiring Mind]

Re: 2018 Winter Olympics

A very surprising breakthrough today in biathlon, with Rosanna Crawford placing 3rd in an event in Germany. This is the first time in over a decade a Canadian women has podiumead in a World Cup race. It's been a very good season for the Canadian women, with a number of top 10 finishes, and now this, it's kinda came out of nowhere as the ladies have generally struggled over the last decade. So tremendous progress, and could be very promising as it's a young team with little funding, but results like these can go a long way to helping improve that. Trivia note, Rosanna is the sister of Chandra Crawford who won a gold medal in cross country at the 2006 Olympics.

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/olympics/bi...edal-1.4482667

[Uncle Bobby]

Re: 2018 Winter Olympics

I wonder if the recent successes of Canadians in these areas is because of the better detection and crackdown on dopers?

[BaronAmongYou]

Re: 2018 Winter Olympics

I wonder if the recent successes of Canadians in these areas is because of the better detection and crackdown on dopers?

Generally I tend to believe Canada's success since 1988 has more to do with us looking to achieve than others being caught breaking the rules. Canada has made a huge investment in our athletes since Calgary in general and prior to Vancouver in specific that has paid off with our emergence as a world power in winter sports. We should be a winter sports power.

[Inquiring Mind]

Re: 2018 Winter Olympics

The crackdown in doping certainly hasn't hurt. The biggest difference is though that we tend to be very good at the newer sports as the program continues to expand, especially freestyle skiing and snowboarding. And as Baron points out, we've invested a lot, and it's paid off in a big way, we've won at least 24 medals every games since 2006

It was much bemoaned how we only won 5 medals in Calgary and we won 25 in Sochi, but only 6 were in events contested in Calgary. We're still not terribly good at the traditional sports. There were only 46 events in Calgary, there were 98 in Sochi and there are 102 this year.

If we could ever get decent at the nordic events (cross country, biathlon, ski jumping and nordic combined) we could dominate the medal table, as those are 30 of the 102 events, and we currently barely have any presence in those and haven't won any medals in them since 2006. Cross country and biathlon alone are 23 events... dominating those alone keeps Norway a winter Olympics power.

If you want bang for your buck, that's were you get it as far as medals go. We develop 25 world class hockey players who compete for 1 medal... they develop 25 world class cross country skiers and they won 22 medals in 2014 in the nordic events alone.

[Hugoagogo]

Re: 2018 Winter Olympics

Good choice.

BREAKING:

����Figure skaters Tessa Virtue, Scott Moir named Canada's flag-bearers for 2018 Olympics. https://t.co/xvykqQ2Lhi pic.twitter.com/5z6fU01QGi

— Devin Heroux (@Devin_Heroux) January 16, 2018