Game #16 vs the Bombers

[bone]

The hard part about this decision is that a win at home will go further towards filling the seats then a loss after a gamble. The diehards like the posters in this forum understand the bigger picture but there would have been a good portion of those that attended that would have been confused and thought Killam was out of his mind.

An underrated point. Ensuring that win guaranteed that the Elks will have their first winning season at Commonwealth since the name change. That's a pretty big deal if trying to create return customers.

[bone]

So I ran the scenarios if Edmonton had managed to score 8 on that last drive to tie the season series to see what would have happened.

https://www.cfl.ca/standings-tiebreaker-rules/

In the event of just a two way tie with Winnipeg everything would have been even up until the tiebreaker for highest winning percentage vs. the same division.

And so playing that out Edmonton would have been 5-5 in the scenario where there is a tiebreaker at 18 points each and Winnipeg either 3-7 or 4-6 depending on which game they won. It would also have been good enough if the tiebreaker was at 16 points each Edmonton would have been 4-6 and Winnipeg 3-7. So 13 would have been enough. They didn't need 14. Edmonton blew a real opportunity by not at least trying to make it 13 points.



To play out the other tiebreaking scenarios assuming Edmonton wins their final two games and knowing there are no more head to head matchups between teams 2-5 in the west except the two Edmonton plays (none of these would have been impacted by the score on Saturday).

If it ends up a three way tie at 18 points with Calgary and Winnipeg. Calgary would be 4-2 and Edmonton 3-2 and Winnipeg 1-4 meaning Calgary gets the 3rd seed, Edmonton the crossover Winnipeg out.

In a three way tie with BC and Winnipeg, Winnipeg would be 3-1, BC 2-3, Edmonton 2-3, in which case , Winnipeg would be the 3rd seed, and BC the Crossover because the tiebreaker would reset and BC would have the season series vs. Edmonton, eliminating Edmonton.

In a three way tie with BC and Calgary, BC would be 4-1, Edmonton 2-3, Calgary 1-4, meaning BC would be the third seed, Edmonton the crossover and Calgary out.

In a four way tie, because Winnipeg swept BC, we'd have BC 4-3, Calgary 4-4, Edmonton 4-4, and Winnipeg 3-4. So BC would get the 2nd seed and Winnipeg would be eliminated, then the tiebreaker would reset giving Edmonton the 3rd seed and Calgary the crossover.

At least that's how I read it.

[cmbuk]

So there is still a chance! Lol

I love my team.. but I just can’t see how we beat bc Friday

they have kicked out asses every game in bc last 3 years

[Looner]

So there is still a chance! Lol

I love my team.. but I just can’t see how we beat bc Friday

they have kicked out asses every game in bc last 3 years

Rourke has our number for sure but we are a completely different D then he saw the last time we played them.

[ben_the_eskimo]

So there is still a chance! Lol

I love my team.. but I just can’t see how we beat bc Friday

they have kicked out asses every game in bc last 3 years

It’s hard to beat a team 3 times in the same year, and we’ve come a long way since we played them last, in fact Tre started both of those early BC games I believe. And the second one when we played them at home we didn’t even show up so you know the team’s gonna be itching to make that right. Plus Cody said in an interview the other day that they’re playing for Larry as well as for they’re playoff lives.

It’ll be a good measuring stick for us.

[cmbuk]

It’s hard to beat a team 3 times in the same year, and we’ve come a long way since we played them last, in fact Tre started both of those early BC games I believe. And the second one when we played them at home we didn’t even show up so you know the team’s gonna be itching to make that right. Plus Cody said in an interview the other day that they’re playing for Larry as well as for they’re playoff lives.

It’ll be a good measuring stick for us.

Agreed.. playoffs aside… the confidence it would build and carry over to next year would be huge!

[cmbuk]

Rourke has our number for sure but we are a completely different D then he saw the last time we played them.

Are lions locking into 2nd? I can’t remember ..

[bone]

Are lions locking into 2nd? I can’t remember ..

They aren't. All four teams in the west except Sask could still end up as third seed or as the crossover. The only things determined is that BC can't be eliminated at this point and Edmonton can't host. Winnipeg and Calgary could end up as good as hosting the semi or as bad as missing the playoffs all together. It's a pretty wild finish we've got in store.

[cmbuk]

They aren't. All four teams in the west except Sask could still end up as third seed or as the crossover. The only things determined is that BC can't be eliminated at this point and Edmonton can't host. Winnipeg and Calgary could end up as good as hosting the semi or as bad as missing the playoffs all together. It's a pretty wild finish we've got in store.

I’m so confused!! Ha

[bone]

I’m so confused!! Ha

It took a lot of time to run all the scenarios and play it out, but I think I finally figured it out. It's wild, and frankly it's good for the league (or at least good for the Western part of the league).

[glenvb]

It seems quite possible that Edmonton will end up with a 9-9 record and still miss the playoffs. That would be tied for the best playoff-missing record since the crossover was introduced.

The only other time that happened? 2018. And the 9-9 team that missed the playoffs? You guessed it. The Eskimos.

[bone]

It seems quite possible that Edmonton will end up with a 9-9 record and still miss the playoffs. That would be tied for the best playoff-missing record since the crossover was introduced.

The only other time that happened? 2018. And the 9-9 team that missed the playoffs? You guessed it. The Eskimos.

The symmetry that I'd love to see is that the multi-team tie happens making Winnipeg miss as the distinction would be that the only two 9-9 teams not to make playoffs were teams that were hosting the Grey Cup that year.

[Hammer24]

Rourke has our number for sure but we are a completely different D then he saw the last time we played them.

This is true but BC's D is also playing much better since then, especially their DL. BC's DL is the CFL's most dangerous in terms of pressuring the QB while EE's struggles in pass protection. Including that Wk 6 game EE had 3 sacks in 5 games played while BC had 11 in 6 GP. Since then EE has recorded 18 in 11 GP while the Lions have tallied 30 in 10 games.

In that same timeframe EE had surrendered 12 sacks in 5 GP with Ford starting. Since then they've given up 34 in 11 games for a total of 46. BC on the other hand gave up 5 in their first 6 GP and 13 in 10 GP since then for a total of 18.

It will be interesting to see how Maksymic game plans to protect Fajardo who has long struggled dealing with big pass rush pressure. Rankin will be key for Elks to take pressure off Fajardo. However run defense is also an area BC has improved on. They gave up an average of 124.7 yds per game in the first 6 GP but have cut that to 89.5 in the 10 games since.

[Looner]

This is true but BC's D is also playing much better since then, especially their DL. BC's DL is the CFL's most dangerous in terms of pressuring the QB while EE's struggles in pass protection. Including that Wk 6 game EE had 3 sacks in 5 games played while BC had 11 in 6 GP. Since then EE has recorded 18 in 11 GP while the Lions have tallied 30 in 10 games.

In that same timeframe EE had surrendered 12 sacks in 5 GP with Ford starting. Since then they've given up 34 in 11 games for a total of 46. BC on the other hand gave up 5 in their first 6 GP and 13 in 10 GP since then for a total of 18.

It will be interesting to see how Maksymic game plans to protect Fajardo who has long struggled dealing with big pass rush pressure. Rankin will be key for Elks to take pressure off Fajardo. However run defense is also an area BC has improved on. They gave up an average of 124.7 yds per game in the first 6 GP but have cut that to 89.5 in the 10 games since.

Lions are the team to beat, at least in my opinion.